A popular betting market’s forecast has been deemed "underpriced" by Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research. According to Sigel, the odds of a US Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing this year are even higher than previously thought.
Polymarket’s Forecast: 77% Chance of a US Solana ETF Listing in 2025
On January 1st, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket reported that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 were around 77%. However, Sigel believes this forecast is overly pessimistic. In a recent post on the X platform, he stated:
"Polymarket’s forecast of 77% is underpriced. I believe the actual probability of a Solana ETF listing in the US this year is even higher."
Industry Expectations: A Surge in Crypto ETF Listings
The industry has been anticipating an increase in crypto ETF listings in the US, particularly after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Trump, known for his pro-crypto stance, stated that he wants to make America "the world’s crypto capital." This sentiment has sparked optimism among investors and asset managers.
Prediction Markets: A Tool for Accurate Forecasts
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds have increased to approximately 84% as of January 2nd, according to its website.
The Challenge Ahead: Conforming to a ‘Grantor Trust’ Structure
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly challenged their plans, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges, and they use an atypical ‘grantor trust’ structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers argue that success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to this structure.
A Green Light from Trump’s Victory
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly stated that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."
Bullish Bettors: Polymarket’s Trading Volume
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US.
